Results

Disaster risk management and resilience assessment framework for historic areas

The main output of the ARCH project will be a coherent, overarching and unified disaster risk management framework for historic areas. This platform will complement and build on the Ten Essentials for Making Cities Resilient, the Sendai action plan and the RAMSES Transition Handbook.

A resilience assessment framework for historic areas based on a version of the Disaster Resilience Scorecard for Cities will be tailored for historic areas and will take into account chronic stresses from climate change, as well as acute shocks from natural hazards.

Data capturing and information management

The models and data needed to make informed decisions to reduce risks from climate change and other hazards are not always available, or are not available in a form that is useable to decision-makers. Data will be collected from surveys and monitoring systems through satellite, aerial and ground sensors. As well as data about the condition of the historic areas and objects, information on hazards will also be included, such as rainfall, water level, probability of earthquake occurrence, air temperature and atmospheric gases.

The captured data will be fed into an information management system for geo-referenced properties of heritage assets to allow urban practitioners and decision-makers to estimate the likelihood and intensity of hazards, and in some cases will be integrated into existing information management systems and platforms already in place in the cities themselves.

Simulation models

Simulation models will be produced to give decision-makers a deeper understanding of the potential hazard impacts the historic areas face under different climate scenarios and also following seismic threats, taking into account interconnected systems like critical infrastructure and the secondary impacts that can arise from those. Decision-makers will be able to use these models to better understand the potential benefits of different types of resilience measures and prioritise investment for maximum effectiveness. The system can also help in optimising emergency plans and allow local authorities to explore different courses of action as a training exercise as well as real-time information during a crisis.

 

Risk-oriented vulnerability assessment

ARCH will combine probabilistic risk-oriented vulnerability assessments developed as part of the RESIN and CIPRNet projects. The IVAVIA method, developed as part of the RESIN project, will be adapted to take into account the specific regulatory and societal conditions of historic areas, and the CIPCast DSS from the CIPRNet project will be embedded within the IVAVIA process. This will give users a fully tool-supported process to conduct risk analysis for historic areas.

 

Collaborative, web-based disaster risk management platform

This platform will include models, methods, tools and datasets and will help urban practitioners and local authorities create and implement sustainable protection and reconstruction strategies.

 

Resilience options inventory

Measures to build resilience will be needed to respond to the results of the impact and risk assessment. For this, a collection of measures and pathways to implement these measures will be provided along with methods of assessing their usefulness and options for how to finance them. This will provide guidance in prioritising options and designing resilience pathways.